INTEGRATED MODELLING FOR LARGE-SCALE DEPLOYMENT OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS IN BRAZIL: AN INDUCED LAND USE CHANGE ASSESSMENT

This work aims to assess impacts associated with the large-scale deployment of sustainable aviation fuels produced in Brazil through two standardized routes (Alcohol to Jet – ATJ and Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids - HEFA) and four different biomass feedstocks in the territory (maize – second crop harvest, sugarcane, palm and macaw fruit). To this end, the national integrated assessment model (IAM), Brazilian Land Use and Energy System (BLUES) was applied. Five self-imposed SAF market penetration shares for total kerosene demand are assessed, ranging from 10% to 50%. Induced land use change is analyzed with two approaches towards deforestation: zero illegal deforestation 2028 onwards, which reflects the Brazilian climate mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement, and high deforestation rates, following historical trends. Main findings are that 10% is the optimal share for deployment with current technologies and premises and ATJ routes show better performance in climate mitigation terms in comparison to HEFA.