FORECASTING PRODUCTIVE TRAJECTORY WITH A FOCUS ON AGRIBUSINESS: A CASE STUDY IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF PARAGOMINAS – PARÁ

The objective of this work is to demonstrate the productive trajectory of the city of Paragominas with a focus on agribusiness, including the ability to make forecasts for the next 4 years. Annual data were collected (from 1985 to 2019) of the variables: Area of Forest, Area of Pasture, Area of Soybean, Area of Temporary Crops, Number of Agricultural Establishments, Quantity of Agricultural Jobs. Forecasting was done with the help Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The study seeks to help the municipal public and private management indicating the productive trajectory of agriculture in the municipality in the context of sustainable development. The descriptive results showed that the use of land has presented dynamic of production in the transition from pasture activities to agriculture, mainly soy. Establishments and formal jobs have represented a correlation with the expansion of soy production in the analyzed period. It was also possible to carry out other analyzes based on consolidated data projections of the municipality, which on the one hand suggests a process of scientific learning through statistical techniques correlated to socioeconomic and environmental studies, and on the other hand, the opportunity of learning as a hypothesis for the trajectory of productive land use and agribusiness.